If you have a chip and a chair, you have a chance. That’s what six-time CFR steer wrestling qualifier Baillie Milan says. That’s all you need when you saddle up for this poker game we call rodeo, and it’s the thing that keeps pushing competitors to make the miles in the hopes of qualifying for the ever-evasive “finals” — whichever one that may be.

As the end of the 2018 rodeo season in the CPRA and PRCA starts to draw near, we’re going to keep our eyes on “the bubble,” that nerve-wracking zone between having a chance and feeling safe. We’ll see who can overcome that position, and who will have to try again next year.

Do Or Die Time To Get Into Grass Roots Final

If you’re not safely within the top 10 in the Grass Roots standings, and certainly if you’re not on the top end of the CPRA standings — you better have your hammer cocked for Oldstoberfest this weekend and be ready to make some money.

Watch The Grass Roots Final LIVE on FloRodeo September 27-28, 2018.

But who actually has a chance to make the Grass Roots Final if they’re able to do well this weekend? 

The Grass Roots standings can be deceiving if you don’t factor in the rodeo count that competitors must hit in order to qualify to compete at the Grass Roots Final — 40 percent for Canadian residents (13 rodeos) and 50 percent for non-residents. The timed events right now are pretty self-explanatory because most of the competitors on the list have their count and it's just a matter of looking down the list to see who can win enough money to squeeze in.

The roughstock events are a different story though. You have to look much further down the list to fill the spots, meaning it could be anyone’s game before this weekend seals the fate of the standings immensely.

So, prepare for a lot of numbers to be thrown at you because there are only two regular-season rodeos left before the 2018 Grass Roots Finals and it's truly do-or-die time for some CPRA competitors. 

Bull Riding: Coverchuk Putting On The Pressure And Can Brown Hold Off The Sleepers In The Herd?

CPRA Rookie Cody Coverchuk has been having the kind of year all new professional rodeo competitors dream about. After kicking it in the PBR, he's entered the first year in the CPRA and already won the Finning Pro Tour and the spot in the Calgary Stampede next year that goes with it. He’s solidified his spot in the 2018 Canadian Finals Rodeo, and - while he won't make his rodeo count for the Grass Roots Finals - he's still putting the pressure on those who can qualify, and himself.

"You know, when it gets to be this time of year every year it seems like every ride counts for so much more and I haven't had great success dealing with that added pressure,” said Coverchuk. “This year I'm going at it with a whole new mindset — I'm not thinking about all the stats and all that other jazz, I'm just pushing the chips all in every single bull I get on and really approaching every bull I get on with a 'ride or die' mentality."

That's OK, Cody, we'll obsess over the stats and all that jazz for you and the cowboys that has a chance to qualify with just one rodeo left in the Grass Roots series.

There are some sleepers in the herd that have an opportunity to not only catch No. 10 in the Grass Roots standings - Kyle Brown - but if they are successful at qualifying for the “last chance finals,” could earn their own spot in the Canadian Finals Rodeo. 

Looking first at the Grass Roots standings Brown has $5,768.43 in earnings, and a scroll over to the Canadian Standings also shows a slim, but mathematically possibly chance for Brown to also earn the $6,000 he needs to surpass the No. 12 man in those standings — but he’d need to get into the Grass Roots Finals to do it. 

Due to an injury that has taken him out of competition since the Strathmore weekend, Tim Lipsett finds himself in a tough spot in both the Grass Roots and Canadian Standings. He needs $1891.19 to pass Brown in the Grass Roots, and with only this weekend left to do it, every dollar will count to to keep that dream alive. 

He has just under a $5,000 gap to make up in the Canadian Standings as well, and can do it if he makes the Grass Roots Final — truly making it do or die for Lipsett this weekend.

Confused yet? Maybe this chart will help… or not?

Saddle Bronc: Which Two Will Win The Battle?

Four have a chance, but only two can stay. 

That’s the situation that Lane Watt, Dusty Hausauer, Cole Ashbacher, and Ricky Warren are finding themselves in right now. Watt and Hausauer are inside the top 10 right now, but the other two are breathing down their necks with just a thousand-dollar gap to make up for Ashbacher and $1,200 for Warren to get into the Grass Roots Finals.

But here’s where the numbers get really complicated — with much further reaching implications. 

Hausauer is in CFR so he doesn’t have to stress, but all three of the other bronc riders have a mathematical chance to make their FIRST Canadian Finals Rodeo. Watt has by far the best shot with only a $2,168.52 gap standings between him and his first qualification. Warren is next with a $3,122.63 deficit. And Ashbacher is a long shot, but if he can get into the Grass Roots finals he has a mathematical chance of covering the $6,573.13 spread.

This weekend will help tell if Watt can hang on to his top-10 placing, or if the other two can sneak in for a chance at the Grass Roots Final and ultimately, the CFR.

Bareback: Literally ANYONE With Enough Rodeos Could Get In

I’d also like to point out the bareback riding – because of the requirements for the number of rodeos you have to hit, the event’s inherently low number of entries, and bareback riders tendency to be a little more choosy about how many rodeos they enter because of the extreme stress on their bodies – it creates an odd situation in the Grass Roots standings. When you go down the list and only count the guys that actually have their rodeo count, we just barely fill the ten spots for the Grass Roots Final.

So what does that mean? Cole Jamieson is sitting on the bubble now with $1,334.65 in the Grass Roots bareback riding race, but Oldstoberfest paid just over that for first in the bareback last year. Meaning literally ANYONE could sneak in there after these next two weekends if they have enough rodeos in their count.